Weather Patter Theory Part 5
I just wrote a long entry. And, then I clicked on the wrong thing and it was erased. Have you ever done this before. I am very angry, but I will get over it. So, I will begin writing again.
The weather pattern for the next 6 to 10 months is likely now set. And, it doesn't look good. If you like stormy weather this is about as bad as it gets, but perhaps there is some hope. The hope lies in the fact that I believe that this is a unique pattern, in other words it has never happened before. There are some characteristics to this new pattern that could very well end up in an exciting set up for storm systems. I am not sure what those pattern set ups will north face coupons discounts look like. What we do know is there is one very predominant feature in the Gulf of Alaska/northern Pacific Ocean and across Alaska. This is a deep trough that continuously regenerates week after week. We are continuing to analyze the data. Our winter forecast will be on the 10 PM newscast here on NBC ACTION NEWS. So, we still have a lot of data to analyze.
I have noted Todays weather conditions in my new record book. I do not like the way the Jet is running. I dont see a change in the Westerly or Pacific flow. This flow in the late fall and into the early winter trends to be a warmer one. I think this because of the discount the north face Diving Jet stream just to our east. I think that the Ingrediants for Severe Storm systems will all come to gather east of This diving Jet just ahead of developing drylines. Because of the nature of flows of lows the area I decribed will be a breeding ground for rough weather. Im worried about Tornado outbreaks from Columbia over to St. Louis in Febuary. Temps might sore into the low 70's. I see several Lake effect snows over the Great lakes area. Maybe 2 or 3 Noreasters over the northeast. But for us it could be on the just above Freezing with wild swings into the 60's for 2 to 3 days at a time. I still am not ruling out a couple of Freezing rain events with thunder maybe a lot of sleet or small hail with it. Oh well IM just a novice but I just can not rule out any of these events. Hey as far this winter is going to goStrap on those Seat Belts its going to be a wild ride.
Gary, I believe in weather patterns much like you do, but I go with trends based on the last 60 days and compare that trend to the 30 + years of weather graphs I've kept. My trends show us to be closest to, 1975, 1988, 1989 and 1990. I'm leaning closest to 1989 as we enter November.
I've been doing long rane weather forecasts on my own for 20 something years and have accidentally found myself fairly accurate using trends. You can check out current long range forecast through Dec. 20, here:It shows a major snow event around the 26th to the 28th of this month up to 7".
Again, around the 17th of December which a arctic front will hit for 2 days with some snow.
Oh well, Gary, at least we had a good June and August, still, so far for November, I have had 0.00 precip and an average lo of 51 and an average hi of 71. I note we may get down to normal temps next week. Hope the system on late Sat gives us some good storms one thing at a time.
Last year had several storms, but not a whole lot really ice etc. and a good rainstorm, so if we can do that good, I'd better consider myself fortunate.
Since 2000's DecemberJanuary, have we really had a truly cold, active winter? I can't recall. I do know that if you look at the planting zones, we are in a warmer spot within the general zone what's that about?
How is it we missed out on precipitation this time? We had low level moisture as evidenced by the increased dew points and noticible humidity, a strong southerly flow, and a front moving in that should have acted as a lifting mechanism. I'm a little surprised we didn't see at least some rain, if not a passing thunderstorm. Also, I completely agree with you. I'm hoping for an exciting winter patternsans the ice stormsbut am worried with the stagnant pattern we've seen here in west central Missouri since August presenting us with warmer than normal temps and drier than normal conditions that we are in for a long, warm, dry winter.
Its like baking a cake. Some of the inngrediants needed to lets say bake a storm were not there. As a Tornado Hunter I have learned to ride about 50 miles east of the dryline. The Jet stream also was not quite right. The Jet has been riding up and around us. Also a strong Low brewing and stewing up over the the great lakes region pulling all the Dynamics need to produce Tornadoes and Severe thunderstorms into the Great lakes, Ohio valley and Upper mississippi and Tennesse valleys and away from us. That Cold front that passed over us was a very weak one. It looks like this pattern will happen many times this winter causing what I think will produce several lake effect snowstorms. Your idea of Ice Storms, well yes I think a couple could be possible. I think this winter will produce more Sleet and maybe some hail with thunder then snow. No snow at all ? No NO, there will be some, but it should not hang around long. Now Saturday or Sunday look more like some light rain. And would somebody please explain to me why the Indiana County EOC did not order the Police and Fire departments to run Sirens and loud speakers during that early morning Tornado ? That is supposed to be Standard Emergency Management.
I'm just a Latin teacher who loves weather so I know very little. However, with the PNA forecasted to be around minus 1, I would think that gives us a chance at a stormier pattern the next couple of weeks. While I don't by anything the gfs says beyond 5 days, it has been hinting for 34 runs of some pretty cold air by Thankgsgiving. Also, the 240 EURO seems to move the Alaskan trough east. So having another bland winter really doesn't surprise me. If it turns out not to be the case, so be it I don't think any human really is capable of foreseeing what Mother Nature will ACTUALLY do. (Don't bother posting just sharing my thoughts.)